![]() ![]() Gould, and Bill James who have emphasized the roles of contingency and variation in creating the world we see. Taleb’s general points-about variation, randomness, and selection bias-will be familiar with statisticians and also to readers of social scientists and biologists such as Niall Ferguson, A.J.P. There is risk in book-writing, since in some ways referees are the ideal audience of experts, but I enjoy the freedom in book-writing of being able to say what I really think. Taleb definitely seems to be writing to the reader, not the referee. I prefer writing books to writing journal articles because books are written for the reader (and also, in the case of textbooks, for the teacher), whereas articles are written for referees. ![]() On the cover of the book is a blurb, “Named by Fortune one of the smartest books of all time.” But Taleb instructs us on page 161-162 to ignore book reviews because of selection bias (the mediocre reviews don’t make it to the book cover). ![]() It’s an important topic, and the book is written in a charming style-I’ll try to respond in kind, with some miscellaneous comments. Naseem Taleb‘s publisher sent me a copy of “Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and the markets” to review. ![]()
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